If the United States does not begin to reign in war lords making money from illicit drug trade, the US will suffer consequences much like the consequences it has suffered from al Qaeda over the last decade. Tribal war lords will be heavily armed with advanced weapons and a network of mujahidin that potentially could have a global reach. At the very least the mujahidin, if felt threatened by the United States, could prolong the war against terrorism in South East Asia. Providing more forces to Afghanistan may spread the United States Military too thin and hinder the Global War on Terrorism. Drug money leading to the funding of al Qaeda may enable terrorists around the world new capabilities to conduct their operations.
The United States may be empowering groups that could carry out future Jihad against the United States. Our previous experience in Afghanistan helped enable Osama bin Laden and the al Qaeda organization commit the atrocities of 9/11 and other attacks against the United States. The Karzai government will also have this ability once the Afghan military is powerful enough to take out these warlords. Not only is this causing destabilization in Afghanistan it could cause terrorism in the future.
US’ dependence on the warlords and their militias to further its political and military agenda has been detrimental to the disarmament and the weaponisation programme; creation of a national army and the police force; anti narcotics operations and, above all, building institutions of governance and extending Kabul’s authority in the provinces (Chandra 2006).
The United States must break away from the idea that the enemy of my enemy is my friend. While Afghan warlords are playing an essential role in reigning in al Qaeda members, the United States and the people of Afghanistan can not afford these people to turn on them once their means to collect funds is taken away. The United States pulled funds from earlier Mujahidin fighters in Afghanistan which was one of the reasons Osama bin Laden created al Qaeda. Tribal warlords are already armed to fight an insurgency; they may enable the organizations to morph into terrorist organizations. The same ramifications may arise if the United States and other forces are able to eliminate the drug trade in Afghanistan
Unfortunately, the United States has let the drug trade in Afghanistan spiral out of control to the point that tribal war lords and their Mujahidin have the capability of creating an insurgency against the United States. War lords in Afghanistan possess weapons similar to those being found in Iraq. The use of IED’s, Shape Charges, and anti aircraft weaponry has wreaked havoc on Coalition Forces in Baghdad and elsewhere around Iraq. Modeling their insurgency after Iraq would cause difficulties for United States forces in the region. This would cause the US, NATO, and a newly formed coalition to allocate more resources to the region spreading their militaries thin. A weak United States military would not only embolden global terrorist organizations, but also states seeking regional dominance and destabilization.
A weak United States military would embolden Iran to further its nuclear armament program. A nuclear Iran would destabilize the whole Middle East which may cause conflict with Israel or surrounding Arab countries. Further nuclear programs may pop up throughout the Middle East especially in Saudi Arabia and Egypt. These two countries are current power brokers, along with Iran, in the Middle East and want to maintain their dominance of the region. Israel has said it will not accept a nuclear armed Iran. Further military action carried out by Israel may further destabilize the Middle East causing retaliation by Hizbullah and HAMAS both terrorist organizations funded by Iran. This could possibly lead to a full occupation of the Palestinian Territories and Lebanon. This may lead to a further weakening of the West which would embolden al Qaeda and its affiliates.
Al Qaeda is reaping financial benefits from the drug trade in Afghanistan; if current trends continue, their organization may witness a weaker America more susceptible to attack. Al Qaeda is not only weakening the people of the United States by providing them dangerous drugs, but also destabilizing the military through the drug trade. If al Qaeda is successful at destabilizing military forces in the United States, they will have the capability to attack the United States more easily than currently.
The United States must find a way to eliminate poppy production in Afghanistan. Otherwise, the dynamics of the Middle East and South East Asia will change dramatically. However, procedures can be taken to reduce Afghan poppy production. These recommendations must be implemented immediately. Soon Afghanistan will resemble Columbia but with drastically greater consequences.
Sources:
Chandra, VIshal. 2006. “Warlords, Drugs and the ‘War on Terror’ in Afghanistan: The Paradoxes.” Strategic Analysis 30(1).
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